Remember the property cycle

Of course, it’s important to remember that our property markets move in cycles, and while the long-term trend is up, there are also periods when property values fall and periods where house prices remain flat – even for years.

Of course, there isn’t one property market - there are markets within the market of each major city.

There are houses, apartments, townhouses, and villa units.

These are situated in the CBD, inner ring suburbs, middle ring suburbs, and outer suburbs.

And then of course there are multiple regional property markets around Australia.

And each of these has its own drivers of property price growth.

So in reality looking at these long-term trends is interesting but not very instructive.

As each state has its own individual property cycle and every capital city market experiences a number of years of flat or no growth at all.

property markets have moved in two distinct cycles over the past four decades, being either growth or flat cycles.

However, over longer periods of time, property capital growth is relatively stable i.e., most markets have produced circa 7.50% p.a. growth over the past 40+ years (which is approximately 5% p.a. plus inflation).

Now I don't see a property boom ahead any time soon...

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Jason Gwerder
Friday, 25 August 2023

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