Are Interest Rates going to come down

The Commonwealth Bank, Australia's biggest lender, is forecasting six interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 starting in September this year.

They also expect dwelling prices to rise a further 5% in 2024.

The CBA's head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, says the recent rise in unemployment will force the RBA to take action to avoid a blowout in jobless numbers.

"Our base case sees the RBA commence an easing cycle in September 2024 (75 basis points of rate cuts by end-2024 and a further 75 basis points of cuts in H1 2025,” Aird said.

This would take the RBA cash rate back to 3.6 per cent in the second half of 2024 for the first time since May 2023 - down from an existing 12-year high of 4.35 per cent, and down to 2.85 per cent by mid-2025.


The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed our unemployment rate has risen to 4.1 per cent as 22,000 people left the employment pool in January.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to the highest point it has been in two years.


Aird says the CBA expect the unemployment rate is heading for 4.5 per cent in coming months unless interest rates are reduced to encourage economic growth.

CBA expects the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2024, which is higher than the RBA’s current forecast of 4.3 per cent.

"We believe RBA cuts will be required this year to prevent the unemployment rate from rising much above 4.5 per cent," he said

CBA had previously predicted three rate cuts by the end of 2024 and another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025. This update brings the second trio of rate cuts forward to the first half of next year.

RealRenta has all the tools that a property manager has but for less than ¼ the cost of a property manager.

You can now manage your Residential, Commercial or share/student accommodation property

Join now and the cost is less than a cup of coffee a week to manage your rental property.

RealRenta also has a free vision, so why not check it out.

Jason Gwerder
Wednesday, 28 February 2024

Join our mailing list Receive Free Property Tips and news

Now Partnered With


Contact Us

1300 11 RENT (7368)